The tape measure: a powerful predictive 'instrument' for mortality

More research recently published in the Archives of Internal Medicine further validates the power of waist circumference measurements to predict death from all causes. This study provides evidence that its accuracy is far superior to body mass index (BMI).

"Waist circumference (WC), a measure of abdominal obesity, is associated with higher mortality independent of body mass index (BMI). Less is known about the association between WC and mortality within categories of BMI or for the very high levels of WC that are now common."

The authors examined the association between WC and mortality among 48 500 men and 56 343 women between 1997 and 2006, during which 9315 men and 5332 women died. Considering the adverse metabolic and hormonal activity of visceral (intra-abdominal versus subcutaneous) fat, their data is not surprising:

"After adjustment for BMI and other risk factors, very high levels of WC were associated with an approximately 2-fold higher risk of mortality in men and women...The WC was positively associated with mortality within all categories of BMI."

Very high levels of WC means 47 inches for men and 43 inches for women. Waist circumference is a more reliable indicator than weight or BMI. If you're losing weight without your WC getting smaller, you're probably losing more muscle than fat. As the authors state in their conclusion:

"These results emphasize the importance of WC as a risk factor for mortality in older adults, regardless of BMI."